New York Forex Report: Merkel Comments Boost Euro

New York Forex Report: Merkel Comments Boost Euro

New York Forex Report: US markets have rebounded back within their ranges, after last week’s selling pressure. Developments in the US will continue to dominate market attention, today’s meeting of euro area finance ministers is only likely to offer a minor distraction, while Chancellor Merkel says Euro is ‘too weak,’ making German products cheaper. Late last week, the Greek parliament approved a new round of austerity measures, paving the way for euro group finance ministers to conclude the second review of its bailout program at today’s meeting. If approved, this would ensure that Greece would receive the near €6bn needed for it to repay its obligations relating to maturing bonds in July. Domestically, with just over two weeks to go, the various political party leaders will be interviewed separately on BBC over the course of the week, starting with PM May this evening who chose not to attend the televised leaders’ debate last week. Meanwhile in the US, Fed officials Harker and Kashkari are due to speak during the course of the day. While both are voters on the FOMC this year, Harker is seen as one of the more hawkish members of the committee. As expectations around US fiscal policy changes continue to be scaled back, any comments on the outlook for US monetary policy will be closely watched.

USD US President Trump will embark on his first overseas trip as the US president with a very packed itinerary. In Saudi Arabia over the weekend, the President sealed a $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia on Saturday. He would then visit Israel (22-23 May), Italy and the Vatican (24 May), Belgium (NATO Summit)

EUR Eurozone’s current account balance dropped from a record high of euro 37.8 billion in February to euro 34.1 billion in March. Trade surplus dropped by euro 1.0 billion to euro 40.6 billion and secondary income slipped a further euro 4.4 billion to – 9.8 billion euro in March. Separately in Japan, trade surplus narrowed to 481.7 billion yen in April (March: 614.0 billion yen) due to steeper decline in exports (-12.50%) compared to imports (-11.60%).

GBP Consumer spending jumped 2.3% in April, which was more than double the market’s expectation. Retail sales excl. gas and autos was also very strong as the warm weather attracted shoppers to the stores.

JPY North Korea has confirmed it “successfully” launched another medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly oversaw the launch of the Pukguksong-2 missile and had “approved the deployment of this weapon system for action.” The latest provocation is set to intensify tensions in the Korean Peninsula.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – As 1.1040 supports bulls target stops above 1.1230 en-route to a test of broader symmetry swing objective at 114.30. Only below 1.0830 concerns near term bullish bias.

1-3 Week View – While 1.0830 supports 114.30 becomes the primary upside objective. A weekly close over 1.14 sets upside focus on 1.1876. Weekly close below 1.08 neutralises bullish objectives
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – Psychological 1.30 magnet achieved as 1.2880 supports interim symmetry swing objectives at 1.3060 & 1.3118 are targeted next, only below 1.2750 concerns near term bullish bias.

1-3 Week View – The weekly closing breach of 1.2880 opens 1.30 as the next upside objective ahead of the broader symmetry swing objective sited at 1.3238.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – 115 becomes the next upside objective only back below 110.30 would concern the near term bullish bias, near term 112.30 is the upside hurdle that must be removed to rejuvenate bullish spirits.

1-3 Week View – As 108.40 equidistant swing support survives on a weekly closing basis bulls will look for a grind higher to retest 115, a close below 108 negates the broader bullish theme and opens the psychological 100 magnet
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – Close over 124.40 opens 129.44, near term support is sited at 123.30, only below 121.30 concerns near term bullish bias. Intraday bulls need to recapture 124.60 to infuse further upside momentum near term

1-3 Week View – The weekly close above 118.50 arrested the immediate downside risk, resetting focus on pivotal 124.40 a weekly breach of this level opens 129.44 as the broader upside objective
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

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