New York Forex Report: Oil Rebounds On Hopes Of OPEC Deal

New York Forex Report: Oil Rebounds On Hopes Of OPEC Deal

New York Forex Report: Risk sentiment was dampened at the London open today as the Shanghai composite fell more than 6% triggered by panic in the wake of further Oil price and global equity declines. Despite this heavy start to the session, risk rebounded sharply into the US open as Oil jumped on hopes that OPEC are moving closer to striking a deal to tackle the huge supply glut in Oil markets. Concerns surrounding the slow-down in China remain heavy however with the latest rail freight volume data showing an 11.9% drop in 2015 against a 3.9% drop the year before.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR ripped sharply lower over the European session as risk-senitiment improved following a rebound in Oil prices. Traders look ahead to key US data later today with Consumer Confidence the headline event, expected unchanged at 96.5.

Technical: Trading mid range, a sustained breach of 1.08 bids opens 1.07 range lows. A breach of 1.0990 trend resistance opens a broader 1.1240 symmetry corrective objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.08 stops below. Offers 1.0950 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: In comments made during the financial stability report in London today, BOE Governor Mark Carney reiterated that conditions are not yet in place for a UK rate hike. Despite his repeated Dovish comments, GBPUSD rebounded as risk sentiment rallied on Oil’s move back above $30 per barrel.

Technical: A breach of 1.42 opens a retest of last weeks seven year lows. Over 1.44 eases immediate downside pressure and sets up a broader correction

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.42 below. Offers 1.44 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The Japanese Yen weakened over the European morning as a rebound inr risk-sentiment saw JPY safe-haven demand diminished.

Technical: While 117.90 caps downside attempts expect a retest of 119 offers. Only above 119.30 eases immediate downside pressure. A breach of 117.40 resets the bearish tone.

Interbank Flows: Bids 117.50 stops below. Offers 119 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: JPY weakened against EUR over early European trading on Tuesday as a rebound in risk sentiment saw JPY sharply lower. Similar EUR weakness keeps flows stifled however.

Technical: While 128.50 caps upside reactions, expect a retest of bids at 127.50. Only over 129.50 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 127 stops below. Offers 128.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Despite coming under sharp selling pressure yesterday as continued Oil price declines melted away investor risk appetite, the Aussie has rebounded so far today as higher Oil prices have lifted risk markets.

Technical: While .6930/50 caps intraday downside expect a test .7050. Only a breach of .7150 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids .6900 stops below. Offers .7050 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: The Canadian Dollar strengthened against the US Dollar over early European trading as Oil prices rebounded higher on hopes that OOPEC are close to striking a deal to tackle the huge supply glut in Oil markets.

Technical: While 1.4310/30 caps upside reactions expect a broader corrective phase to test 1.40 support. Only above 1.44 eases immediate downside pressure and opens a retest of 2016 highs.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.4050 stops below. Offers 1.4350 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short