New York Forex Report: Plenty Of Event Risk Ahead

New York Forex Report: Plenty Of Event Risk Ahead

New York Forex Report: The USD is starting a busy week mixed overall, though early losses have been pared back somewhat relative to early Asian session levels. The market has a risk off “feel” to it this morning, with equities softer in European and US futures down. Developed market bonds are better bid, as is the JPY, which is out-performing on the day (while the GBP is the session’s underachiever). Gold is up while crude oil is down as OPEC hopes falter again. After the slow period of trading around Thanksgiving, expect significant event risk this week to drive more volatility in the market; highlights include central bank speakers (Draghi, Poloz) today, US Q3 GDP tomorrow, BoE stress tests and Gov. Carney comments, OPEC, the Beige Book and Q3 Canadian GDP on Wednesday, with Canadian and US jobs data at the end of the week.

FX Majors: EUR climbed against GBP Friday but recorded its worst run of weekly losses since early 2015 amid investors focus on the political risks in the Eurozone instead of Britain. Markets await December 4th referendum on constitutional reform in Italy, which will kick start a tense 18-month long political calendar in Europe with French, German and Dutch general elections due next year. GBP UK’s economy expanded 0.50% QOQ last quarter as concerns of Brexit weighed down on growth momentum. Growth moderated from the 0.70% QOQ pace in 2Q despite the pick- up in exports and government spending as households spending, the largest component of GDP, showed signs of slowdown. On a second report, index of services sustained a 0.80% growth in the three months through September. JPY traders took profits from a minor pullback in US bond yields from recent highs and a holiday-shortened week to consolidate recent gains. Japan’s core consumer prices marked their eighth straight month of annual declines in October. The data will make policymakers hesitate to do more to stimulate the economy, with fiscal spending seems better as three years of aggressive easing by the central bank failed to accelerate inflation to its 2% target

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bearish attention remains towards 2015 lows at 1.0463. Near term resistance sited at 1.0650 under pressure a break here targets a retest of 1.0740 , medium term 1.0850 is a key upside hurdle which will need to be captured on a closing basis to stabilise the pair.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears target symmetry swing objective at 1.2270 as 1.2510 contains upside reactions, over 1.2520 opens an equidistant swing objective of 1.2570 as this level stalls correction there is a window for a resumption of downside pressure. Medium term hurdle at 1.2670
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 115.59 is the next upside objective representing the 61.8% retracement of the 2015/16 decline. A breach of 111.07 would suggest a broader correction to the advance opening a move back to test symmetry swing support at 109.60
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: While symmetry swing support at 118.80 survives, the advance looks set to test 121 equidistant swing objective. A break back below 118.45 opens 116.20 failure here would concern the bullish thesis
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD closed marginally higher for the first day in four on Friday, at 1,183.56 per ounce, after touching fresh 9.5 month low of 1,171.18 earlier in the session. So far, the precious metal has fallen about 7% in November, leaving it on track for its largest monthly fall since June 2013. OIL settled down 4% on Friday, at $47.02 per barrel, weighed by statement by Saudi Arabia that it will not attend talks on Monday with non-OPEC producers to discuss output cuts as it wants to focus on having consensus within the OPEC first which is due to meet on Wednesday. AUD hit eight-day highs of 0.7468 Friday amid the zinc price soared to nearly nine-year highs. Apart from zinc, the iron ore, Australia’s biggest commodity export, has gained about 12% since Donald Trump won the White House on 8 November, while copper has made similar gains and coking coal has been advancing. CAD Canada posted a larger budget deficit in September compared to the year before on lower revenues and increased payments associated with the government’s new child benefit, according to the Finance Department said last Friday. The government had a deficit of C$2.37 billion in September, wider than the C$1.25 billion shortfall it saw in September 2015

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: .7092 AB=CD remains the downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at .7440 has been eroded the correction should now challenge pivotal 7530 as this levels contains the upside reaction there is potential for resumption of downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Price continues to consolidate in a bullish pattern, the profit taking pullback tests and holds symmetry support at 1.3407, as this area contains the pullback 1.3620 becomes the next upside objective. Only a close below 1.3250 concerns the bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As equidistant swing objective sited at 1202 contains upside reactions bears target 1149 as the next downside objective. A close over 1220 suggest broader correction to the recent decline.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Offers emerge at 48.92 equidistant swing resistance as this level contains upside reaction opportunity for a move to the downside targeting symmetry swing objective at 39.78. A breach of 49.20 opens a quick test of offers above 50.00
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines