New York Forex Report: Risk Markets Tumble Amid Global Growth Fears

Fed rhetoric remains hawkish, implying that the Fed is adamant over an interest rate increase next month. The key takeaways however were on the Fed’s take on the pace of subsequent increases, where officials appear to be in consensus for a very measured pace of rise after the initial rate liftoff. Fed Dudley also mentioned that the risks of moving too quickly vs too slowly are finely balanced. Yesterday’s jobless claims were unchanged at 276K, underscoring continuous job recovery and setting the stage for a December Fed rate hike.

The European morning saw commodities and equities lower as global growth concerns persist. US Dollar is down on the session whilst Oil has so far managed to rebound today. Key focus over the American session will be US retail sales expected to improve to 0.3% from 0.1% previous followed by Michigan consumer confidence, also expected to improve to 91.5 from 90 previous.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR was trading higher over the European morning as equity markets tumbled amid global growth concerns coming back into focus. EuroZone 3Q GDP printed below expectations at just 0.3% . Main focus for the US session will be US retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence survey.

Technical: While 1.0830/50 caps intraday upside corrections, bears target a test of 1.0560 next ahead of an assault on year to date lows. Only a close above 1.09 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.07 stops below. Offers 1.0830 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short 1.0830 targeting 1.0560

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GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling has managed to cling to levels just off yesterday;s highs so far today, benefiting more from the softer US Dollar than domestic flows.

Technical:  While 1.5250 contains upside reactions expect a test of of bids at 1.50 as the next bearish objective. Only a close above 1.53 eases immediate bearish bias

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.50 stops below. Offers 1.5250 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sell 1.5280 stops above 1.5350 Target 1.50

gu2015-11-13 06_45_16-NetDania - NetStation

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: JPY continued its correction against the USD following last week’s greenback rally, when USDJPY climbed from 120.50s to 123.50s, that boosted by the upbeat US employment report. USDJPY broke below 123 handle amid the sharp decline in US stock markets.

Technical: While 122.50/30 supports downside reactions, market structure remains bullish to test 2015 highs next

Interbank Flows: Bids 122.50 stops below. Offers 124 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long 122.50 stops below 122 target 125.50

jpy2015-11-13 06_45_44-NetDania - NetStation

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURJPY was sharply higher over the European morning dues to the EUR strength we’ve seen so far today.

Technical:  Bears now target equality corrective objective at 131.20, only a close above 133.50 eases immediate bearish pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 131.00 stops below. Offers 133.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

ey2015-11-13 06_46_21-NetDania - NetStation

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Despite continued commodity price declines amidst growing global growth concerns, the Australian dollar managed to retain yesterday’s highs so far today, benefiting from USD weakness and the recent decline in domestic unemployment.

Technical: While .7170 caps corrective upside reactions expect a retest and breach of Friday’s lows as bearish momentum builds for a retest of year to date lows. A close above .7200 eases bearish pressure

Interbank Flows: Bids .7000 stops below. Offers .7170 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Squared shorts into .7030 target, sidelines for now

au2015-11-13 06_47_13-NetDania - NetStation

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: The Canadian Dollar managed to recoup some of yesterday’s losses over the European morning as Oil sustained a mild rebound on the session, though still heavily down on the week.

Technical: Offers just above 1.33 stall the upside ratchet, bulls have the ball while 1.3220 supports intraday downside. However a close below 1.3220 today would suggest a false upside break and a bull trap sustained weakness below 1.3220 confirms.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.3250 stops below. Offers 1.3350 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uc2015-11-13 06_47_48-NetDania - NetStation