New York Forex Report: Soft Data Sees Risk Sentiment Retreat

New York Forex Report: Soft Data Sees Risk Sentiment Retreat

New York Forex Report: A raft of EuroZone data this morning highlighted unstable conditions with German 2Q GDP printing above expectations, at 0.4% vs 0.2$ QoQ and 1.8% vs 1.4% YoY, whilst Italian GDP fell to 0% vs 0.2% QoQ and 0.7% vs 0.8YoY. Latest data from the UK saw a sharp contraction in June Construction Output which fell to -2.2% vs -2.1% expected, supporting the view that the economy was already turning lower ahead of the Brexit referendum.

FX Majors: EUR The USD Index recovered to around 95.90 levels, while its main component, euro, dropped 0.5 percent from the intraday high of 1.1192. GBP e pickup in US treasury yields and more signs of weakness in Britain’s housing market pushed the Sterling below 1.3000 handle on Thursday to its lowest in a month, down just over a third of a percent on the day. The latest report from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors added to evidence that the British economy was slowing, which has weighed on the pound since June’s Brexit referendum. JPY soaring in the wake of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union may stymie a possible recovery in Japanese demand for steel, according to an official at the country’s top maker of the material. The JPY has surged around 14% this year

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Target 1.1330. Failure below 1.1030 opens 1.0950 on the downside.Near term support is sited at 1.11
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.2950 equidistant swing objective achieved and attracts anticipated profit taking. 1.31 the immediate upside hurdle ahead of pivotal 1.3160. As 1.31 caps corrective expect retest of this weeks lows.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close below 103 will see bears target a retest of cycle lows below 100. Near term resistance is sited at 102.80, over 102.90 targets 103.50 next.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The breach of 113 opens 110.80 as the next downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at 113.90 rejects on first test, while 112.80 supports potential to test pivotal 114.20.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

Commodities FX: GOLD retreated erasing gains as money flowed into riskier assets Oil prices rose after comments from the Saudi oil minister about possible action to stabilize prices triggered a round of buying and the International Energy Agency estimate crude markets would tighten in the second half of 2016. AUD was riding the coatails of the NZD yesterday but paused overnight with the weaker China data.. CAD strengthened to a three-week high against the USD, as oil and stocks rallied

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close over .77 shifts attention to broader range resistance sited at .7830, near term support is now sited at .7640.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bearish reversal of the post payrolls bullish reversal ahead of 1.2973 symmetry swing support suggests we likely see the test of 1.2973. Failure below 1.2940 opens 1.2860 as the next downside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bulls target 1391 as the next upside objective, near term support is sited at 1330. Below 1300 opens 1270.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Symmetry swing resistance sited at 43.28/96 stalled the corrective advance as anticipated with bears now targeting the pivotal 38.19, near term supported is sited at prior lows, a close over 44.40 is required to ease bearish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short