New York Forex Report: Sterling Climbs On CPI Beat Ahead Of BOE

New York Forex Report: Sterling Climbs On CPI Beat Ahead Of BOE

New York Forex Report: The headline news over the early European session on Tuesday was an unexpected uptick in March UK CPI which printed 0.5% vs 0.4% expected (headline) and 1.5% vs 1.3% expected (Core). This positive inflation development comes just ahead of the March BOE meeting on Thursday which traders anticipate will see the bank delivering a Dovish message following a recent raft of weak domestic data and growing Brexit concerns which have hampered investor sentiment.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURUSD was a little stronger over the European morning today as range-bound trading persists. German March CPI data came out in line with expectations.

Technical: Price continues to recoil and rotate below symmetry swing objective at 1.1420, printing a hight of 1.1454 before pulling back below the figure, price action appears to be coiling. While 1,1330 continues to support expect a test of offers towards 1.15 next.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.1330 stops below. Offers 1.1450 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling strengthened over the European morning today as the latest UK CPI data came out above expectations with a beat on both headline and core inflation

Technical: Price continues to finds bids at 1.4050 pivotal support within the broader 1.45/1.40 range, While 1.4140 supports 1.44 symmetry swing objective is the upside target.. A failure to hold 1.40 opens a retest of year to date lows at 1.38 ahead of 1.37 weekly swing objective.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.41 stops below. Offers 1.44 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said yesterday that the government was closely monitoring the foreign exchange market and the moves in the yen were one-side and speculative. Markets are now looking to the BoJ policy board meeting of this month for fresh monetary-easing actions that could ease the upward pressure on the JPY.

Technical: The downside ratchet now targets 105.50 as the next major downside objective. Near term look for upside reaction to fail at 1.09 ahead of trend resistance at 110.50 for renewed weakness.

Interbank Flows: Bids 107.50 offers below. Offers 109 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Nikkei futures are pointing to a pick-up today which could be supportive of the cross today. There appears to be little that the BoJ can do to support the pair given that negative interest rates are not popular with the public and PM Abe and the ruling coalition are faced with an Upper House elections in early summer.

Technical: Bears target a retest of 122.05 year to date lows, intraday resistance is sited at 124.50. Only a close over 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 122 stops below. Offers 124.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: Range-bound trading persists in AUDUSD amidst a lack of data catalysts. Traders look ahead t a raft of Fed speakers over the New York session today with Fed’s Harker, Lacker and Williams due to speak.

Technical: Only a close below .7500 threatens the near term bullish bias, while this level supports intraday expect a grind higher to test .7770. A failure at .7500 opens pivotal .7450 support.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7500 stops below. Offers .7650 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The Canadian Dollar remains supported following Crude Oil touching a new four-month high yesterday amid renewed hopes for a production freeze deal. Traders now await the BOC rate decisiion tomorrow for the latest guidance from the bank.

Technical: Anticipated retest of 1.2830/50 level underway as we once again attempt to set a double bottom base to encourage a broader correction.Failure below 1.2780 opens 1.2550 as the next downside objective

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.29 stops below. Offers 1.3250 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short