New York Forex Report: Sterling Falls On BOE Comments

US data weakness yesterday prompted a further weakening of the US Dollar which is back down to the opening levels of the week. Equity markets are sharply lower this morning amidst a retreat in risk-sentiment following news that a Russian fighter jet was shot down over Turkish airspace on the border with Syria.  Main focus for traders today will be on: US 3Q GDP expected 2.1% from 1.5%, US Personal Consumption expected unchanged at 3.2% and US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure expected unchanged at 1.3%.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EURUSD managed a mild recovery over early European trading as German GDP printed in line with expectations and German IFO data surpassed expectations. Traders await key US data.

Technical: While 1.07 caps intraday upside corrections, bears target a test of 1.0560 next ahead of an assault on year to date lows. Only a close above 1.08 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.06 stops below. Offers 1.0750 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short 1.0830 targeting 1.0560

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GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: GBP was heavier again over the European morning today as BOE Governor Mark Carney testified to the UK treasury committee saying that he foresees low rates for a long time with BOE’s Haldane commenting tat the risks to UK growth and inflation are skewed materially to the downside. UK CBI reported sales for November printed well below expectations coming at at 7 vs 25 expected.

Technical:  While 1.5230 contains upside reactions expect a test of of bids at 1.50 as the next bearish objective. Only a close above 1.54 eases immediate bearish bias

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.51 stops below. Offers 1.53 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

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USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Yesterday was a quiet day for JPY with domestic markets on holiday. USDJPY went up to an intraday high of 123.25 and slipped back to 122.93 to start its Tuesday session traders await US Third Quarter GDP and US Personal; Consumption Expenditure.

Technical: While 122.50/30 supports downside reactions, market structure remains bullish to test 2015 highs next

Interbank Flows: Bids 122 stops below. Offers 124 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long 122.50 stops to entry target 125.50

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EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Local markets were closed for a public holiday yesterday and re-opened today. The pair continues to be weighed by the negative cross flows from the EUR.

Technical:  While 131.50 caps upside reactions expect retest of 130.50 lows and sustained break below 130 to confirm a retest of 2015 lows

Interbank Flows: Bids 130.50 stops below. Offers 132.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

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AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The Australian Dollar remains resilient and clings on to session highs of low .72s as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens cast a fairly optimistic outlook for the domestic economy during a speech made overnight.

Technical: While .7170/50 supports downside reactions expect grind higher to retest Friday’s highs, a failure at .7150 suggests a retest of current base towards .7070.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7100 stops below. Offers .7250 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

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USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: USDCAD was firmer over the European morning as Oil retreated from session highs having made a sharp recovery higher yesterday on news of Saudi Arabia’s pledge to stabilize Oil markets.

Technical: Offers just above 1.3350 eroded year to date highs are the primary upside objective now, bulls have the ball while 1.33/1.3280 supports intraday downside. A close below 1.3220 would ease the near term bullish bias.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.33 stops below. Offers 1.34 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines for now

uc2015-11-24 08_39_52-NetDania - NetStation

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