New York Forex Report: Sterling Under Pressure As Net Consumer Credit Dips

The US Dollar begins the new week on the front-foot as market expectations for clear policy divergence drivers continue to shape flows. All attention this week will be initially placed on the ECB’s December meeting, where investors look for the central bank to announce further easing measures; attention will then turn to the US November NFP’s where USD bulls will be hoping for another boost ahead of the keenly anticipated December FOMC meeting where CME group price a 78% probability of a rate hike.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR was lower over the European morning as expectations for further ECB easing to be announced this week continue to weigh on rate. Headline data over the US session will be German CPI at 1300GMT expected to improve to 0.4% from 0.3% previous.

Technical: While 1.0620 caps intraday upside corrections, bears target a test of 1.05 next ahead of an assault on year to date lows. Only a close above 1.07 eases immediate downside pressure.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.0550 stops below. Offers 1.07 Stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

eu2015-11-30 07_30_35-NetDania - NetStation

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: GBP continued lower over early European trading as the latest UK mortgage approvals and net consumer credit data both undershot expectations.

Technical:  While 1.5090 contains upside reactions expect a test of of bids at 1.50 as the next bearish objective. Only a close above 1.52 eases immediate bearish bias

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.50 stops below. Offers 1.51 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

gu2015-11-30 07_31_20-NetDania - NetStation

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: The strong US Dollar saw USDJPY strengthen over the European morning with JPY weaker as equity markets continue higher this week.  Traders look ahead to Japanese 3Q capital spending data later today.

Technical: While 122.50/30 supports downside reactions, market structure remains bullish to test 2015 highs next. A failure at 122 opens a test of 121.40 support next ahead of pivotal 120.

Interbank Flows: Bids 122 stops below. Offers 124 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

uj2015-11-30 07_32_00-NetDania - NetStation

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Cross-flows continue to keep EURJPY hemmed in with both EUR & JPY weak so far today.

Technical:  While 131.30 caps upside reactions expect a sustained break below 130 to confirm a retest of 2015 lows. Only a close above 132.50 eases immediate bearish pressure. Intraday initial upside hurdle is 130.50 while this caps upside corrections expect further grind lower to retest and break 129.70 lows.

Interbank Flows: Bids 130.50 stops below. Offers 132.50 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

ey2015-11-30 07_34_42-NetDania - NetStation

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: AUD closed at 0.7192 and touched a one-month peak of 0.7283 last Wednesday, partly due to expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in no rush to cut interest rates in the near future. The central bank’s next policy meeting is tomorrow and investors expect the RBA to keep interest rates at a record low of 2.0 percent.

Technical: While .7170/50 remains the bid zone expect grind higher to test .7350 area next, only a close below .7150 concerns near term bullish bias.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7150 stops below. Offers .7300 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

au2015-11-30 08_25_36-NetDania - NetStation

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: USDCAD softened from initial session highs over early European trading as Oil price spiked ahead of this week’s OPEC meeting where the organization will discuss polices to tackle the huge supply glut which has weighed so heavily on Oil prices.

Technical: Bulls have the ball while 1.3280/60 supports intraday downside. A close below 1.3220 would ease the near term bullish bias and suggest a broader correction is underway.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.3250 stops below. Offers 1.34 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

uc2015-11-30 08_26_04-NetDania - NetStation