New York Forex Report: Thin Trading, Storm Stella Targets New York

New York Forex Report: Thin Trading, Storm Stella Targets New York

New York Forex Report: The USD is trying to find its feet again as the slide from last Friday shows further signs of stabilizing broadly. The USD is higher against most of its G10 peers on the day though movement has been relatively limited, outside the GBP’s sharp drop. Trading volumes in the North American session may remain relatively subdued due to 1) the winter storm that is affecting the North East of the US and 2) the Fed decision and Dutch election on Wednesday. Global stocks are trading with a softer bias while developed market bonds are mixed US Treasury bonds are outperforming weaker markets in Europe.

FX Majors: EUR Italy’s industrial production fell a disappointing 2.3% m/m in January to be down 0.5% y/y, continuing the run of Euro area industrial production reports that have failed to live up to expectations. GBP has been hit following the latest Brexit developments; the last important domestic hurdle to Brexit has been cleared. The House of Lords has just voted a couple of hours ago to pass the European Union (Notice of Withdrawal) Bill, after the House of Commons voted to take out the amendments and to send it back to the upper house. JPY tertiary industry index came in flat on the month in January, improving from a 0.3% MOM decline in December, as declines in wholesale trade, retail, as well as finance & insurance offset gains in other services sectors, suggesting sluggishness in consumption.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The closing breach of 1.0650 arrests near term bearish bias and resets attention on upside objectives, with 1.0830 the primary upside objective ahead of 1.0985 equidistant swing objective. A close back below 1.06 suggest continuation of trade environment and a false upside break
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Only over 1.2330 stems selling pressure near term support is sited at 1.22 the failure here has opened the anticipated retest of last weeks lows at 1.2135 ahead of pivotal 1.1985
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The close over 114.50 reasserts upside targets and 114.50 now becomes near term support as price primarily targets stops over 115.50. Failure below 113.80 concerns near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 122.50 as the primary upside objective achieved profit taking has developed. Only below 121 concerns near term bullish bias, as 122 supports near term expect a test of of 123.30 as the next upside objective

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD settled higher for the first time in ten sessions. The precious metal had initially slipped on Monday as the prospect of imminent interest rate rises kept them near the five-week lows touched last week. However, losses were limited by elections in Europe creating uncertainty and fueling investor buying. OIL prices traded roughly flat after hitting three-month lows on Monday, as rising inventories and drilling activity in the US, the world’s top energy consumer, offset optimism over OPEC’s efforts to restrict crude output and reduce a global glut. AUD Surveys conducted by National Australia Bank showed that business conditions and business confidence were less favourable in February compared to the previous month. The gauge of business condition dropped to a three-month low (February: 9 vs January: 16) while business confidence index also staged a pull back to a reading of 7 last month compared to a reading of 10 in January. CAD strengthened for a second consecutive session on the heel of a stellar employment print on Friday. With the exception of manufacturing sales on Friday, there is little in terms of domestic data this week. The outlook for relative central bank policy remains bearish for CAD, and the recent decline in oil prices removes one of the core pillars of CAD strength that had been offsetting the drag from interest rate differentials.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: .7500 downside objective achieved as .7570 caps upside corrections .7450 becomes the next downside objective, only over .7650 resets attention on upside targets
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Symmetry swing objective sited at 1.3480 achieved, as 1.3390 supports bulls target 1.3598 . Only a close below 1.33 concerns the near term bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close below 1215 invalidates bullish bias opening a retest of 1200 as 1225 caps upside corrections 1180 becomes the next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Price is now testing primary trend line support from the February 2016 lows at 48.70 while this are supports there is an opportunity to retest range support at 51.00 as this level caps upside reactions bears target 45.20 as he next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

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