New York Forex Report: Tight Ranges As Risk Sentiment Steadies

New York Forex Report: Tight Ranges As Risk Sentiment Steadies

New York Forex Report: USD stabilization has extended through a quiet European session, leaving the big dollar mixed in narrow ranges against the majors. There is a full day of event risk ahead of the market—the US reports trade, inventories, house price, consumer confidence and manufacturing survey data. In addition, there are a number of Fed speakers, on tap including George (non -voting hawk), Chair Yellen, Kaplan (voting hawk) and Governor Powell (neutral).

EUR The EUR rally has stalled. The massive short-term rate spread between the EUR and the USD remains a significant impediment to a sustained EUR rally. While ECB’s Weidmann said he thought there was a risk that QE could last longer than required, ECB chief economist Praet stated that it was premature to talk about exiting stimulus. He urged policy makers to look through the recent gains in inflation.

GBP Article 50 declaration is expected tomorrow and extensive negotiations over the next two years will follow to iron out the terms of the divorce. The event itself is well factored in to the GBP, the uncertainties surrounding the process perhaps less so.

JPY Steadier risk sentiment have curbed demand for the JPY but USDJPY retains a heavy bias, with ealt London gains capped around 110.80. . Early Wednesday morning, we will be receiving February retail sales data

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – 1.0830 primary upside objective bulls now target the corrective 1.0969 equidistant swing objective. Near term support is sited at 1.0820 A close back below 1.07 would concern near term bullish bias.

1-3 Week View – While 1.10 contains corrective attempts higher focus remains on a retest of 1.03 ahead of 1.0118 extension objective form 2015/17 consolidation. Only over 1.14 sets upside focus on 1.1876
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – 1.2570 upside objective achieved potential for profit taking pullback to test symmetry swing support sited at 1.2515 as this area supports expect a test of triangle resistance sited at 1.2640 only below 1.2370 concerns near term bullish bias.

1-3 Week View – While below 1.2864 bears set sites on 1.10 as the broader downside objective, a weekly closing breach of 1.2660 will set up a move to test the weekly bearish line in the sand
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 111.75 range support breached the daily close below here suggests downside range break and opens 108.43 equidistant swing objective to the downside, near term resistance is sited at 110.75. Only over 112 stems near term selling pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipated test of 119.30 attracts profit taking as 121 caps upside attempts bears target a test of 118.22 as the next downside objective. Only over 121.80 arrests near term selling pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

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