New York Forex Report: Traders Turn To Key US Data

New York Forex Report: Traders Turn To Key US Data

New York Forex Report: Following a rather muted FOMC meeting which saw the Fed striking a rather optimistic tone citing diminished near term economic risks, traders now await further post-Brexit data to help gauge the chances of a September hike. First up we have US 2Q GDP and Personal Consumption Data today followed by July UoM Confidence with all three data sets tipped to beat expectations.

FX Majors: A slew of strong data out of the EuroZone this morning with EZ Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 10.1%, EZ CPI July Estimates beating expectations on both core and headline readings and 2Q EZ GDP printing better than expected also. In the UK Net Consumer Credit saw seen at 1,8bln in Jun vs 1.4bln expected whilst Mortgage Approvals dropped to 64.8k hitting a one year low. JPY Spending among Japanese households fell for four straight months, strengthening the case for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently announced expansion of fiscal spending to spur growth. Household spending tumbled 2.2% YOY in June (May: -1.1% YOY) while retail sales rose less than expected last month (+0.2% MOM vs consensus: +0.3% MOM). Consumer prices also dropped for four consecutive months before BOJ’s monetary policy disappointment.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Breach of 1.1060 reestablishes range trade and refocuses attention on 1.1185 range resistance as the major near term upside hurdle a close above this level opens 1.14 next.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.3260 represents symmetry resistance while this area caps expect a retest of 1.30 base, with an equidistant swing objective sited at 1.2875. Over 1.3330 shifts attention back to 1.3550 symmetry swing objective.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The overnight breach of 104.09 symmetry swing support has opened anticipated test 103.50 as the next downside objective a close below 103 will see bears target a retest of cycle lows below 100.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Symmetry swing support sited at 114.49 under pressure overnight, currently price is holding above this level as it survives on a closing basis expect retest and breach of 118.46 cycle highs, below 113 opens 110.80 as the next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD consolidates between $1,333 and $1,345 after having rallied 1.5% on the prior day, before ending Thursday 0.3% lower at $1,335.75. Oil settled down 1.86% to $41.14 a barrel, entering a bear market having fell more than 20% from its June’s high of $51.67, after U.S. government data showed a surprise rise in crude and gasoline inventories, adding to concerns of a supply glut. AUD climbed back to 0.7500, but traders are still concerned that the Reserve Bank of Australia wants to restrain the buoyant currency.The low inflation could prompt the central bank to cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week. CAD firmed against the USD as the USD was pressured after the Federal Reserve stopped short of signaling a forthcoming US interest rate hike. The loonie held relatively firm against the falling price of oil, while investors eyed domestic economic data due today.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 7430 supports, as we continue to rotate in a broader .7660/.7340 range, with .7330 representing symmetry swing support. Near term resistance sited at .7570 continues to cap upside attempts.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.3080 supports bulls target an equidistant swing objective at 1.3381. Below 1.3060 opens 1.2965 symmetry swing support.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Testing symmetry swing support sited at 1305, while this area attracts buyers will set a potential platform to challenge and breach 1360 highs en-route to 1391. Below 1300 opens 1270 as next downside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: : Breach of bids at 41.87 opens 38.19 as the next downside objective, expect 43.10 prior support to act as resistance, a close over 47.80 required to ease bearish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines