New York Forex Report: Trump To Meet Obama

New York Forex Report: Trump To Meet Obama

New York Forex Report: EUR drops to 1.0888 in Europe (1.0942 open & 1.0947 high) Broader USD gains are once again led against JPY. UST yields are no longer underpinning USD gains as US 10y and German Bund spread has actually narrowed on the session. CME futures are still pointing towards a December move by the FED after significant whipsaw in probability pricing witnessed overnight Tuesday. USDCAD up to 1.3438 amid NAFTA concerns: 75% of Canada exports go to US. Early AUD short squeeze premised on AUD benefiting from rise in risk appetite/commodity price gains has reversed as markets await further clarification on Trump policies. Headline risk this afternoon likely comes from Trump’s meeting with Obama.

FX Majors: EUR jumped to the 1.1300 zone as Donald Trump pulled off a stunning victory in the US Presidential race, whereas the upside move was not sustained and the pair has since sold off sharply, closed at 1.0909. The sharp improvement in risk appetite was a crucial factor later in the London and US sessions with a decline in net euro support as there was fresh interest in carry trades GBP Business sentiment recovered from post-referendum fall but remained relatively fragile alongside significant uncertainty around the longer-term outlook, Bank of England said. The central bank also commented that investment intentions indicate “broadly stable or slightly lower” spending in the coming year. JPY Survey by eco watchers showed that Japanese households and businesses were expecting economic momentum to pick up steam. The gauge of expectation in the next few months climbed from 48.5 in September to 49.0 in October. On a separate survey, households were the most optimistic about current economic situation since January. The index climbed from 44.8 in September to 46.2 in October despite broadly subdued growth.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears have the ball and target near term support is sited at 1.0900 failure here opens pivotal 1.0850. 1.1030/50 is near term resistance ahead of 1.1150
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Medium term resistance is sited at 1.2550. A close over 1.2550 eases bearish pressure. Interim support is sited at 1.24, below 1.2350 suggests false upside break and return to broader range trade.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Whipsaw price action within a broader range over 105.50 opens a move to target 107.40, near term support is sited at 104.20, below 101.10 opens pivotal 100
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Upside attention on 116.20 as the primary upside objective with in in the broader 112-116 range. A tops side expansion through 116 opens 121 equidistant swing objective. Back below 114 opens 112 again.

Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD spiked to as high as 1,337.38, an almost 5% rally when Trump was leading the race to the White House but subsequently pared almost all gains to finish a mere 0.18% higher at 1277.98 after risk assets recovered. OIL recovered from an earlier 4% drop to close 0.6% higher at $45.27 per barrel. AUD Yesterday’s drop in the Aussie is the biggest since 24 June after global markets stumbled following the shock Brexit vote where Britain voted to leave the European Union. CAD trimmed losses after hitting an eight-month low against the US dollar as Republican Donald Trump’s election to the White House raised worries about the outlook for Canada’s trade-intensive economy.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: AUD continues to rotates in the upper end of the contracting range with .7730 capping upside and .7500 containing downside reactions, a breach of the lower end of the range opens .7412 symmetry support. Through .7750 opens .7830 on the upside.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1.35 target achieved, as 1.3250 supports bulls target a test of 1.3573 only below 1.2960 threatens this objective and suggests a test of pivotal 1.2820.

Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1337 contains the upside reaction expect a retest of support back at 1245, near term resistance is sited at 1310. Over 1340 opens pivotal 1375.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The failure at 46.03 has opens 42.73 as the next downside objective ahead of 39.78. Near term resistance is sited at 46.38
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral