New York Forex Report: Trumpflation Trade Needs Triage

New York Forex Report: Trumpflation Trade Needs Triage

New York Forex Report: Risk aversion is tightening its grip on markets amid a sense that a deepening crisis may be descending on the White House following yesterday’s revelations suggesting that President Trump urged former FBI director Comey to drop an investigation into former NSA director Flynn. It is no stretch to say that speculation regarding the future of the presidency is rising. Traders are shunning stocks and favouring safe havens on the day so far; US Treasury bonds are outperforming, with US 10Y yields falling nearly 4bps while the JPY is out performing among the major currencies and the USD remains broadly on the defensive as traders factor in additional political risk. The VIX has popped significantly, from very low levels last week, adding to the market’s sense of concern. Commodity currencies continue to under perform, with the CAD and MXN also losing ground against the beleaguered dollar on the day. Markets had already taken a dim view of the president’s troubles, with successive PR stumbles in recent weeks undermining confidence in the administration’s ability to deliver on its pro-growth/tax reform agenda in a timely manner. The latest developments suggest an even longer wait for the reflation trade.

USD Data from the US was a mixed bag. Industrial production unexpectedly grew 1.00% MoM in April followed a revised 0.40% MoM increase in March. The 5.00% increase in motor vehicles production and 1.20% growth in mining output drove headline IPI reading higher, offsetting deceleration seen in the utilities sector (April: +0.70% vs March: 8.20%). On the other hand, building permits and housing starts figure showed that property market is off to a weak start this quarter

EUR The euro zone’s economy expanded 0.50% QoQ last quarter, affirming that economic recovery in on track. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, grew 0.60% from the previous quarter while France and Italy expanded 0.30% and 0.20% respectively. Investors remained optimistic about the economy, according to a survey. The ZEW expectation index climbed to 35.1 in May (April: 26.3), the highest level since August 2015. ECB governing council member Benoît Cœuré said that the recent measurable increase in long-term yields has not affected ECB’s monetary policy stance. And that he cautioned against over-interpreting any uptick or downtick that the markets observe.

GBP UK’s price pressure continued to surge amid Sterling’s depreciation. CPI climbed 2.70% YoY in April (March: +2.30% YoY), the quickest pace since September 2013, while retail prices grew 3.50% YoY last month (March: +3.10% YoY). PPI increased 3.60% from a year ago in April, unchanged from the pace in March. The UK March house price recorded a slower pace of increase at 4.1%YoY (easing from 5.6%YoY in Feb while forecast is 5.3%YoY).

JPY Japan’s March machine orders which unexpectedly contracted -0.7%YoY (+1.4%MoM) from +5.6%YoY (+1.5%MoM) in Feb and well missing the Bloomberg median forecast of 2.5%MoM, 1.2%YoY). Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda who was speaking at a Wall Street Journal meeting, delivered similar messages that he had been echoing in recent months. One of the more interesting points Kuroda made was that the BOJ will be able to keep interest rates “extremely low” through smaller JGB purchases as the Japan government debt markets tighten. He said that the BOJ bought 40% of the JGBs in the market so there is still 60% of JGBs available for BOJ to buy.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Neutral

Technical: 1-3 Day View – Offers ahead of Interim symmetry swing resistance stall advance near term as 1.1040 supports bulls seek a test of broader symmetry swing objective at 114.30. Only below 1.0830 concerns near term bullish bias

1-3 Week View – While 1.08 supports 114.30 becomes the primary upside objective. A weekly close over 1.14 sets upside focus on 1.1876. Weekly close below 1.08 neutralises bullish objectives
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – Psychological 1.30 magnet remains the upside objective for now with weekly symmetry swing objective at 1.3060 , only below 1.2750 concerns near term bullish bias.

1-3 Week View – The weekly closing breach of 1.2880 opens 1.30 as the next upside objective ahead of symmetry swing objective sited at 1.3238
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – As 112.20 supports 115 becomes the next upside objective only back below 110 would concern the near term bullish bias.

1-3 Week View – As 108.40 equidistant swing support survives on a weekly closing basis bulls will look for a grind higher to retest 115, a close below 108 negates the broader bullish theme and opens the psychological 100 magnet
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1-3 Day View – Close over 124.40 opens 129.44, near term support is sited at 123.30, only below 121.30 concerns near term bullish bias

1-3 Week View – The weekly close above 118.50 arrested the immediate downside risk, resetting focus on pivotal 124.40 a weekly breach of this level opens 129.44 as the broader upside objective
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

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