New York Forex Report: US PMI Data In Focus

New York Forex Report: US PMI Data In Focus

New York Forex Report: The US Dollar has continued to push higher this week supported by comments from various Fed members in support of a likely June rate hike. A mostly quiet second-tier data week for traders is providing little in the way of momentum so moves are fairly slow. US PMI data is the main focus over the US session today with Services & Composite PMIs due. Traders will also be paying attention to comments made by Fed’s Harker, Kapaln and Kashkari who speak today.

FX Majors: Following disappointing ZEW surveys, German IFO surveys printed above expectations. Little in the way of data elsewhere over a very quiet European morning session.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Prior support at 1.1180 now becomes resistance while this area contains upside reactions, bears target symmetry support at 1.1065, only over 1.13 eases immediate downside bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Whipsaw price action resolves to the upside as 1.4550 supports downside reactions anticipate a retest of 1.4660 offers and stops above en route to 1.4770. Failure at 1.4530 opens retest of 1.4440 bids.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Retest of offers at 110.60/90 see sellers emerge, the subsequent failure at 109.50 opens a move to retest bids back towards 107.50, a close over 111.90 eases immediate bearish bias. Current price action suggest the move from105.50 is the first leg of a larger correction.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Intraday resistance at 124.20 only a close above 126.80 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: Oil prices fluctuated during the session, but showed signs of recovery as traders awaited US stockpiles data. Prices have been weighed down by a strong dollar, and glut concerns as production from top exporters increases. AUD RBA Governor Steven defended the central bank’s inflation target and said the framework had proved a successful tool in deciding interest rates. The RBA cited low, broad based inflation as the trigger behind reducing the cash rate to a current low of 1.75% on May 3. Steven added that “nobody could control inflation in the “very short term and should not try”. CAD Higher oil prices aided the Canadian dollar to stabilize against the broadly firmer USD after the currency weakened to an earlier seven-week low on Tuesday. Canada’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates at 0.50 percent tonight but strike a more doveish tone due partly to the wildfire in Alberta that interrupted oil production.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 7240/60 support erased now becomes intraday resistance as bears target .7050 as the next downside objective. Only a close over .7400 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 1.30 supports bulls target offers at 1.3210 as the next upside extension target. Only a close below 1.2760 eases immediate bullish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The medium term bullish bias is under assault with the close below symmetry support at 1230. While 1240 acts as intraday resistance 1207 is the next downside objective ahead of 1190.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: As 46.70 supports 50.00 becomes the material upside objective, with a symmetry swing target sited at 50.51 ahead of the larger AB=CD swing objective at 51.07, only a close below 43.00 threatens bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines