New York Forex Report: USD Profit Taking Ahead Of The Weekend

New York Forex Report: USD Profit Taking Ahead Of The Weekend

New York Forex Report: The USD rally marches on following comments from Fed Chair Yellen Thursday which did nothing to disabuse the market of the notion that US monetary policy would be tightened a notch at the December FOMC meeting. Implied volatility remains perky as fast markets break or threaten key levels while uncertainty about precisely what a Trump Presidency can achieve in the relative near-term remains high. Markets have moved a long way very quickly, especially in the G10FX space, and some consolidation near-term would not surprise. Post some profit taking USD is liable to remain firm in the near-term. Beyond the Fed, traders are looking to political and central bank risk in Europe the Italian referendum and the ECB policy meeting, the appeal court’s decision on the UK Brexit process next month which suggest that EURUSD dips are unlikely to amount to much for now.

FX Majors: EUR Eurozone’s CPI rose 0.50% YOY in October (September: +0.40% YOY), marking tis quickest pace of increase since June 2014. On the other hand, construction output fell 0.90% MOM in September (August: revised to 0.10% MOM). GBP In the UK, retail sales surged 7.40% YOY in October, rising at its quickest pace since April 2002. The reading was boosted by the climb in clothing purchases amid cooler weather. However, the advance in price pressure after Brexit may hinder retail sales print as real income growth weakens. JPY The Bank of Japan said it received no bids in its offer to buy Japanese government bonds yesterday under its first special fixed-rate operations. The BOJ had offered to buy unlimited amount of JGBs with 1 to 3 years of maturity at a yield of 0.020 percent above the previous close. The special operations were the first under the central bank’s monetary easing framework unveiled in September, in order to keep the benchmark 10-year yield around 0%.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears have the ball the breach of 1.07 shifts bearish attention towards 2015 lows at 1.05. Near term resistance is sited at 1.07, medium term 1.0850 is a key upside hurdle which will need to be captured on a closing basis to stabilise the pair
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The break back below 1.25 challenges the corrective advance and opens a move to retest last weeks lows at 1.2350 and the symmetry swing objective at 1.2270 in extension, over 1.26 opens a retest of last weeks highs at 1.2671
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1.10 achieved, bulls look for a test of the 1.11 pivot now as the next upside objective. Below 1.0830 opens 1.0740, only below 105.50 concerns bulls
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 116.20 primary upside objective achieved, this level now becomes near term support.The top side expansion through 117 opens 121 equidistant swing objective. A break back below 116 opens 115.30, only close below 114.60 questions bullish thesis
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD price also continued to decline to touch a fresh 5-month low, overwhelmed by the stronger US dollar overnight. The gold price decreased by US$7 to US$1,216.90. OIL prices initially traded higher but ended lower eventually on Thursday (17 Nov) as the strong US dollar rally outweighed the speculation/renewed hopes for a production freeze deal among major producers. The US Nymex WTI futures declined by US$0.15 to US$45.42. AUD Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6% in October, while participation rate fell to its lowest level in a decade with only 9.8k jobs created in the same month. Amid the mixed jobs data, AUDUSD remained under pressure printing a low of 0.7392. CAD weakened against the USD as strong US economic figures and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reinforced expectations of a US interest rate hike next month. Canada’s inflation report for October is due today. The annual inflation rate is forecast to rise to 1.5%, closer to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The breach of 7412 symmetry support now opens .7092 AB=CD. as the next downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at .7440 ahead of .7530.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1.3573 achieved expect some profit taking pullback is testing symmetry support at 1.3407, as this area contains the pullback 1.3620 becomes the next upside objective. Only a close below 1.3250 concerns the bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears achieve the targeted equidistant swing objective sited at 1203, near term resistance is sited at 1241 as this level contains 1190 is the next downside objective. Only a close over 1280 stabilises the decline
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 45.90 contains upside reactions the next downside objective is the symmetry swing objective at 39.78. Only a close over 47.33 stabilises the decent a eases bearish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral