New York Forex Report: USD Slide Continues Following Payrolls Flop

New York Forex Report: USD Slide Continues Following Payrolls Flop

New York Forex Report: USD remains under pressure into the middle of the week with sentiment still bearish following last week’s disappointing NFP print and subsequent comments by Fed chair Yellen who failed to reference any clear timing for a potential rate rise.No key data out over today’s US session so directional catalysts are unclear but expecting more of the same with USD especially weak against the commodity FX bloc.

FX Majors: Market received positive UK data over the European morning on Wednesday with both Industrial & Manufacturing Production for April printing above expectations. Traders now await the release of the UK NIESR GDP estimate at 1500UK time. Quiet data session elsewhere with US Crude Oil inventories the only data of note over the US session today.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: As 1.1290 symmetry supports expect a break of last weeks highs targeting 1.14 as the next upside objective ahead of stronger symmetry swing resistance sited at 1.140. Below 1.12 suggests false upside break and resets attention on 1.1065
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Volatility pervades GBP trading, avoid positioning mid pre Brexit referendum range of 1.4770/1.4330, play the edges with tight stops
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Neutral

Technical: Anticipated trend resistance at 111.30 attracts sellers with downside ratchet now targeting a retest of 105.55 lows with the potential for a daily double bottom pattern to develop. Failure at 105 opens 103 as the next downside objective. 108.50 is the near term pivotal resistance
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears came within 20pips of the much anticipated 120.60 level before witnessing a sharp intraday reversal . While 122.60 contains upside reactions expect a grind lower to breach last weeks lows enroute to a weekly equality objective at 117.36. A close over 122.70 suggests a broader recovery targeting 124.30 as the next upside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

Commodities FX: GOLD ended lower slightly despite the broadly weaker US dollars as investors continued to assess the probability that the Fed will hike rates in the coming months. The gold price declined a bit by US$0.20 to US$1244.40. Oil prices rose further on Tuesday (7 Jun) with US oil prices closing above US$50 for first time since July 2015 as oil companies have slashed spending on new investments and continued news flows about Nigerian oil facing potentially lengthy disruptions. The US Nymex WTI futures increased by US$0.67 to US$50.36. AUD strengthened yesterday after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold and implied it was in no hurry to ease monetary policy further on signs of reasonably strong economic growth.The AUDUSD was the biggest gainer among major currencies, hitting its highest since 6 May. The RBA kept the cash rate at a record low 1.75%, after cutting last month for the first time in one year. CAD strengthened to a one-month high against the USD after oil prices climbed above $50 a barrel. The loonie’s gains came after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Monday called the latest US jobs numbers disappointing and didn’t repeat her recent message that rates could rise again in the coming months.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While .7300/.7280 contain downside reactions AUD has a window to recover and test symmetry and structure resistance sited at .7480/.7500 where fresh selling is expected to emerge. Failure at .7210 suggest early reversal with bears targeting .7140 lows and stops below.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 1.2740 base support under threat, a close below here eases bullish pressure and suggests a grind back to test bids at 1.2459 and stops below.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bids ahead of 1190 proved sufficient to see a sharp reversal from sub 1200 to test offers ahead of 1250. While this level stems the upside expect a rotation back towards 1225, over 1250 opens pivotal 1280 resistance. Failure at 1190 opens 1140/50 symmetry targets.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: As 46.70 continues to support expect a test of the larger AB=CD swing objective at 51.07, only a close below 43.00 threatens bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines