New York Forex Report: USD Stalls Following Mixed Data, Eyes ON NFPs Next

New York Forex Report: USD Stalls Following Mixed Data, Eyes ON NFPs Next

New York Forex Report: The US Dollar retraced slightly from recent highs following mixed data yesterday. Although PCE data was positive, encouraging bulls that a rate hike is coming soon, consumer confidence and manufacturing gauges printed below expectations stemming the upside momentum. May closed outs wrongly positive for the USD index, indicating potential further upside to come – traders now turn to the employment reports on Friday for the next directional catalyst.

FX Majors: Sterling under pressure over the European morning as the latest consumer credit and mortgage approvals data printed below expectations. Moves continued despite a positive Manufacturing PMI reading which improved to 50.1 from 49.4 previous. Markets still heavy as Brexit concerns fester. US ISM Manufacturing data the key release over the NY session today.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bears target symmetry support at 1.1065, 1.1180 is intraday resistance while 1.1240 remains pivotal for near term bearish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The failure at 1.4530/50 support negates near term bullish bias, while 1.4580/1.46 contains upside reactions expect a retest of 1.4330 bids in a pre Brexit referendum range of 1.4770/1.4330
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipated trend resistance at 111.30 attracts sellers as this area contains expect a rotation back towards 108.40. While 107.40 supports expect a second leg of corrective price action to target 113.30
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Intraday resistance at 123.10 only a close above 124.70 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

Commodities FX: Australia’s current account deficits narrowed by AUD1.8 billion to AUD20.8 billion in 1Q. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, net goods and services surplus rose AUD4.7 billion to AUD12.6 billion and is expected to contribute 1.1 ppt to growth in 1Q. A second release of building approvals was also upbeat. Approvals climbed 3.00% MoM in April after increasing 2.90% MoM in March. Separately in New Zealand, business confidence index rose from 6.2 in April to 11.3 in May, the highest level this year CAD weakened to a one-week low against USD after Canada’s economy accelerated less than forecast and oil fell. The losses left the loonie more than 4% lower in May, while it fell around 5% since reaching a 10-month high on 3 May. Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, less than the expectations for 2.9%

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears now target weekly symmetry objective at 120.60. Intraday resistance at 123.10 only a close above 124.70 eases immediate downside pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 1.2940 symmetry swing supports bulls target offers at 1.3210 as the next upside extension target. Only a close below 1.2760 eases immediate bullish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The medium term bullish bias is under assault While 1230 acts as intraday resistance expect a test of 1190.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Second rejection above 50.00 concerns bulls near term although as 46.70 continues to support expect a test of the larger AB=CD swing objective at 51.07, only a close below 43.00 threatens bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines