New York Forex Report: USDJPY Bid Stalls On BoJ News

New York Forex Report: USDJPY Bid Stalls On BoJ News

New York Forex Report: Markets are broadly steady on the session. The USD is mostly lower in narrow ranges so far. Markets may be reacting to a Japanese news report that the BoJ is considering more JGB purchases if policy makers decide to expand stimulus further (next policy meeting is September 20-21). The JPY is flat and under-performing among the major currencies on the session. Oil inventory data will be important for the CAD, with traders likely still mulling yesterday’s IEA report suggesting that the crude market will not regain supply/demand balance until mid-2017.UK employment data came in bang in line with expectations; job gains of 174k for August compare with consensus calls for 171k. Retail sales data are due tomorrow (expected weak) ahead of the BoE policy decision but the Cable market appears to be betting on the BoE maintaining a steady as she goes course for now.

FX Majors: EUR Lautenschläger, member of the ECB’s Executive Board, stated that the central bank should not pass fresh stimulus measures and should give its earlier policy measures time to work, while she was skeptical about any further interest rate cuts given the increasing side effects of such measure. GBP UK’s consumer prices rose 0.6% YOY in August, sustaining the quickest pace of rise in price growth since Nov 2014. Retail price index decelerated last month (1.8% vs 1.9%) but producers’ price index quickened (0.8% vs 0.3%), depicting the impact of a weaker pound sterling. JPY Nikkei reported that BoJ will focus its policy on lower rates as its expansion of asset buying is reaching its limit.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.12 supports 1.1366 is the next upside target with a further equidistant symmetry swing objective sited at 1.1530. Below 1.1190 opens 1.1120 and suggests potential early reversal.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 1.32 supports 1.3470 is the next upside objective, the near term upside hurdle is sited at 1.3280. Failure below 1.3185 suggests early reversal to downtrend.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 102.80 near term resistance removed. A close over 103 opens 106 equidistant swing objective
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 113.80 supports potential for another leg higher to target equidistant swing objective at 117.87. Failure below 113.60 opens move back to 112.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

Commodities FX: GOLD weighed down by a firmer dollar and uncertainty about whether the Fed will raise interest rates next week, while the potential for more stock market weakness offered support. Oil prices came under pressure after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its latest report that markets would have to wait “a while longer” for the oil market to rebalance. The IEA said a sharp slowdown in oil demand growth, coupled with ballooning inventories and rising supply, means the market will be oversupplied at least through the first half of 2017. This contrasts with the agency’s last forecast a month ago for supply and demand to be broadly in balance over the rest of this year and for inventories to fall swiftly. AUD Australian data released by National Australia Bank (NAB) sent mixed signal, with one report pointing to moderation in business conditions in August yet another report showed that business sentiment has proven to be resilient to negative influences over recent months. Last month, business conditions index slipped (from 9 to 7) whilst business confidence index rose (from 4 to 6), the latter likely attributable to the recent 25bps cut in RBA’s cash rate, according to NAB. CAD was soft overnight on falling oil prices, with USDCAD climbing through major psychological level at 1.3150. Markets will pay attention to Canada’s manufacturing sales data due this Friday.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Close below .7500 threatens a more significant bearish reversal, the next downside objective is symmetry swing support sited at .7412. Near term resistance is sited at .7500
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Near term resistance sited at 1.2970 removed next upside objective is 1.32. 1.2960 becomes near term support.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1301 AB=CD equidistant swing support has provided anticipated base. Near term resistance now at 1357, below 1320 opens move back 1301 base. Only below 1300 concerns near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Equidistant swing resistance sited at 47.36 as this level rejected the corrective advance 41.38 becomes the downside objective over 47.50 targets retest of 48.90 potential double top.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines