New York Forex Report: Weak China CPI Shunned As Oil Keeps Markest In Risk-On

New York Forex Report: Weak China CPI Shunned As Oil Keeps Markets In Risk-On

New York Forex Report: Despite weaker-than-expected inflation data from China overnight, major indices remain supported over early European trading today mapping the moves in Oil which continues to forge fresh highs on the back of continued disruption to production in Nigeria. Looking ahead we have very little in the way of data over the US session today with Continuing claims, Initial Jobless claims and Household Change in Net Worth the only data sets.

FX Majors: UK trade balance data for April showed the deficit to have narrowed more than expected though reate remains under pressure as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the outlook. EUR The ECB’s Nowotny said the environment of extremely low interest rates is not the norm, that inflation should be a lot better in 2017, and that he does not expect the oil price to weaken significantly again

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Testing symmetry swing resistance sited at 1.140 Below 1.12 suggests false upside break and resets attention on 1.1065
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Volatility pervades GBP trading, avoid positioning mid pre Brexit referendum range of 1.4770/1.4330, play the edges with tight stops
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Downside ratchet now targeting a retest of 105.55 lows with the potential for a daily double bottom pattern to develop. Failure at 105 opens 103 as the next downside objective. 108.50 is the near term pivotal resistance
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 122.60 contains upside reactions expect a grind lower to breach last weeks lows enroute to a weekly equality objective at 117.36. A close over 122.70 suggests a broader recovery targeting 124.30 as the next upside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

Commodities FX: GOLD price rebounded after a brief marginal decline in the earlier session as the broadly weaker US dollars signaled lower probability that the Fed will hike rates in the coming months. The gold price increased by US$15.40 to US$1259.80 on Wednesday. Oil hit new 2016 highs for the third straight session on Wednesday (0 Jun) as there are still continued news flows about Nigerian oil facing potentially lengthy supply disruptions (which already have slashed output in Nigeria from 2.2 million barrels a day to 1.6 million barrels a day) while the latest US crude inventory data confirmed a tightening market picture, with US commercial stocks dropping by 3.2 million barrels for the week ending on 3rd June. AUD China’s exports slipped 4.1% YOY to USD 181.06 billion in May, extending the 1.8% YOY decline in April. Depreciation in renminbi offered some reprieve to exports in yuan terms but prevailing trend suggests that exports will not be a significant contributor to growth this year, heightening concerns that China along with other emerging markets will drag global growth this year. On the other hand, imports fell at a much softer pace of 0.4% YOY last month (April: -10.9% YOY) amid subdued domestic demand. . CAD remained bid as oil climbed above $50 a barrel once again.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: esting symmetry and structure resistance sited at .7480/.7500 where fresh selling is expected to emerge. Failure at .7210 suggest early reversal with bears targeting .7140 lows and stops below.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Neutral

Technical: Close below 1.2740 negates near term bullish pressure and suggests a grind back to test bids at 1.2459 and stops below. A close today over 1.2760 suggest a false break of support.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Close over 1250 opens pivotal 1280 resistance as 1230 acts as support. Failure at 1190 opens 1140/50 symmetry targets.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: AB=CD swing objective at 51.07 achieved, only a close below 46 threatens bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long