New York Forex Report: Yellen To Take Centre Stage

New York Forex Report: Yellen To Take Centre Stage

New York Forex Report: Janet Yellen will testify before Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. Heading into the testimony the USD Index has been strongly bid since President elect Trump was confirmed last week. With the market ramping up December rate hike odds to a near certainty their is certainly some scope for a pull back on any dovish comments from today’s speech. The release of her initial comments suggest the FED still sees room ifor expansion in the labour market. December seems to be on track according to the prepared remarks but she seems to be cautious regarding the outlook for 2017. In G10 FX GBP extended north to 1.2507 after big UK retail sales beat +7.4% y/y vs revised 4.2% previous and 5.3% expected. ECB’s Mersch commented that market is “not far from point to say rates have bottomed” which helped put some support under the EUR during European trade. Traders attention will shift to Yellen’s live testimony at 1500 GMT

FX Majors: EUR continued the decline on Wednesday and hit fresh 11-month lows under 1.0700, closing down for an eighth consecutive day, as the greenback remained strong in the market.EUR attempted to recover ground after the release of US data that showed lower-than-expected reading in the PPI and in the industrial production report, the recovery was short-lived and it turned to the downside again after finding resistance at 1.0720 level. GBP edged lower against the stronger USD, as markets shrugged off UK upbeat jobs data which showed UK jobless rate falling to the lowest level at 4.8% in 11 years. Instead, traders continued to focus on the risks surrounding Brexit. Adding to further pressure on the sterling was a lower-than-expected inflation data, which showed price growth still below half of the BoE’s 2% target JPY Japan’s inflation will turn positive more quickly than projected by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) if the yen remains at its current level around 110 per dollar for a few months, according to a former central bank policymaker said. Markets believe the BoJ is encouraged by stock market gains and JPY declines after Donald Trump won the white house because this could help improve sentiment and give the economy a boost.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears have the ball a breach of 1.07 will shift bearish attention towards 1.05. Near term resistance is sited at 1.0850, medium term 1.1030 is a key upside hurdle which will need to be captured on a closing basis to stabilise the pair
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The break back below 1.25 challenges the corrective advance and opens a move to retest last weeks lows at 1.2350 and the symmetry swing objective at 1.2270 in extension, over 1.26 opens a retest of last weeks highs at 1.2671
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Equidistant swing resistance sited at 108.03 achieved, 108.40 now near term support, as this level supports bulls focus on 1.10 as the next upside objective. Below 1.0830 opens 1.0740, only below 105.50 concerns bulls
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 116.20 primary upside objective achieved, this level now becomes near term support.The top side expansion through 117 opens 121 equidistant swing objective. A break back below 116 opens 115.30, only close below 114.60 questions bullish thesis
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: GOLD price continued to struggle but managed to etch a small increase on Tuesday after falling precipitously to a 5-month low at the start of the week. The gold price increased by US$2.80 to US$1,224.50. OIL prices was resurgent on Tuesday (15 Nov) as markets speculated that OPEC are working out details of a crude oil production cut. All eyes will be on the 30 November meeting for OPEC where its members aim to reduce production from October’s record levels of 33.83 million barrels, to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels. The US Nymex WTI futures jumped by US$2.49 to US$45.81 AUD remained under pressure overnight as the US dollar index hit its 14-year highs amid a 90 percent chance of a Fed rate hike in December.Australia only added merely 9.8k jobs in October, falling way shy of market forecast of a 20.3k job addition, while unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent unchanged from previous month. CAD strengthened against the USD as domestic manufacturing sales rose for the fourth consecutive month. The increase in Canadian manufacturing sales topped economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%, but a dip in volumes advised slower overall economic growth heading into the fourth quarter.

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The breach of range support at .7500 opens .7412 symmetry support. as the next downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at .7530, over .7610 suggests a false downside break and return to range
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: 1.3573 achieved expect some profit taking pullback is testing symmetry support at 1.3407, as this area contains the pullback 1.3620 becomes the next upside objective. Only a close below 1.3250 concerns the bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears target equidistant swing objective sited at 1203, near term resistance is sited at 1241. Only a close over 1280 stabilises the decline.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: 42.73 achieved as 45.90 contains upside reactions the next downside objective is the symmetry swing objective at 39.78. Only a close over 47.33 stabilises the decent a eases bearish pressure.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral