New York Forex Report: USD Rebounds Over Quiet Friday Trading

New York Forex Report: USD Rebounds Over Quiet Friday Trading

New York Forex Report: The US Dollar traded higher over a quiet European session on Friday with quiet trading expected to continue over the US session today amidst a lack of tier one data catalyst. Only noteworthy print today is Canadian CPI at 1330UK time, expected to come in slightly lower than June’s reading.

FX Majors: EUR remains buoyed on the back of ECB minutes release which noted that the bank felt it was too early to discuss easing at their July meeting. Final EuroZone CPI which was expected to be revised lower actually came in in-line at 0.2% on the headline reading and 0.9% on core, providing further support. GBP Retail sales were above expectations in July at 5.4% vs 3.9% exp. Public Sector Net Borrowing was shown to be less than expected in July at -1.5bln vs 2.2bln expected. . JPY remains pressured from Crude and equity weakness and the final print for the country’s July machine tool orders contracted by -19.7, worse than the prelim print of -19.6%.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Offers at symmetry swing objective at 1.1330 stall advance, as this resistance is removed bulls target 1.1430 next. Near term support is sited at 1.1230, only a failure below 1.11 would concern the near term bullish bias
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Sharp reversal ahead of the anticipated retest of the 1.2770 lows appears to be a short squeeze, only a close over 1.31 alerts to the potential of more meaningful correction, with a test of pivotal 1.3165 as the next upside objective.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: As 101.50 caps profit taking expect further downside pressure with 97.30 the next downside objective. Only a move over 102.80 will ease near term bearish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The breach of 113 opens 110.80 as the next downside objective. Near term resistance is sited at 114
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

Commodities FX: The US and global oil markets continued to rally on Thursday (18 Aug) with Brent oil closing above US$50 a barrel for the first time since 4 July (2016) following data showing lower US crude inventories from EIA on Wednesday (17 Aug). The US EIA reported the US crude inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels (versus the expected decline of 500,000) while gasoline inventories also fell by 2.7 million barrels. The August uptrend in oil price was also due to talk from Saudi Arabia and Russia that major oil exporters could agree to cap output in September. The US Nymex WTI futures rose by US$1.43 to US$48.22 (the highest close since 1 July 2016), while the London Brent oil futures were higher by US$1.04 at US$50.89. Gold continued higher for the third consecutive day on the back of further US dollar weakness and the lack of accord for the Fed’s next move in the latest July FOMC minutes. The gold price increased by US$3.63 to US$1,352.36 on Thursday (18 Aug).

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: The close over .77 shifts attention to broader range resistance sited at .7830, near term support is now sited at .7640.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: With the breach of 1.2843, attention shifts to 1.2718 symmetry swing support. Near term resistance is sited at 1.30.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

XAUUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bulls target 1391 as the next upside objective, near term support is sited at 1330. Below 1300 opens 1270.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USOIL
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 44.22 supports expect a test of symmetry swing resistance sited at 48.13, only below 43.60 concerns the near term bullish bias.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

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