New York Forex Report: Markets Rocked As Oil Slide Fuels Sharp Selling

New York Forex Report: Markets Rocked As Oil Slide Fuels Sharp Selling

New York Forex Report: Early European trading today has been dominated by a heavily risk-off tone as a renewed sell-off in Oil has fuelled agressive selling across global equity markets with both the S&P500 and the FTSE100 hitting new two-week lows. The weekend meeting between OPEC oil-producers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela proved fruitless with no sign of an agreement in place fuelling fresh-fears for continued over-supply in Oil markets.

EURUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: EUR sold off sharply from initial strength over the European morning driven by wild volatility in equity markets. USD has strengthened so far today following Friday’s mixed US jobs report as investors mull rate-hike likelihood in March. Very light data calendar this week.

Technical: While 1.11 provides intraday support expect rotation higher to retest offers at 1.1250. A failure at 1.11 opens pivotal test of 1.10/1.1050 prior range resistance.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.1050 stops below. Offers 1.1250 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Neutral

GBPUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: Sterling sank sharply lower over the European morning hit by equity market volatility, USD strength, Brexit concerns and a renewed slide in Oil rpices.

Technical: While 1.4450 continues to provide intraday support expect a roatation higher to retest1.4580 a breach of offers here opens a retest of last weeks highs at 1.4660’s. Below 1.4450, 1.4360 is next key support.

Interbank Flows: Bids 1.4450 stops below. Offers 1.46 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USDJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: A surge in safe-haven demand continues to strengthen the Japanese Yen whilst a waekened USD continues to trade with uncertainity reflecting the the cloudy US rate-path outlook among investors.

Technical: Key support at 1.16 being tested, while this level holds expect a rotation back to 118. Below here 114 next key support

Interbank Flows: Bids 116.50 stops below. Offers 118.50 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EURJPY
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: JPY strength trumps all heading into the US crossover with EURJPY down sharply despite BOJ comments over the weekend that its QE program should be increased.

Technical: 130 now turns to resistance ast 129 support is eyed.

Interbank Flows: Bids 128.50 stops below
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

AUDUSD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Fundamental: A heavily risk-off start to the week has commodity currencies under pressure as Oil turns lower once more and equty markets tank.

Technical: While .7050 supports the current decline expect a rotation higher to test .7150 a failure here opens a full retest of last weeks highs at .7239.

Interbank Flows: Bids .7050 stops below. Offers .7150 stops above.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USDCAD
Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Fundamental: The renewed weakness in Oil and resilient USD so far today as CAD under firm pressure.

Technical: While 1.3630/50 survives as support potential for broader correction to the recent decline to 1.40 offers from below. A failure at 1.3630 opens1.3430 test on the downside.

Interbank Flows: Offers 1.3950 stops above
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral