Risk Events: UK and US CPI

We have two CPI announcements coming out on Tuesday, August 19, 2014, one from the UK at 8:30 AM GMT and the other from the US at 12:30 PM GMT. Below are diagrams providing more information.

Announcement Time (GMT) Forecast Previous
MoM UK CPI 8:30 AM -0.2% 0.2%
YoY UK CPI 8:30 AM 1.8% 1.9%
MoM US Core CPI 12:30 PM 0.2% 0.1%
YoY US Core CPI 12:30 PM 1.9% 1.9%

MoM UK CPI

 

YoY UK CPI

YoY US CPI

UK CPI and US Core CPI seem to be the more observed figures over their core and non-core counterparts. Even though CPI is a more volatile indicator (vs. Core CPI) we have seen monthly figures above 0% for almost every month from the UK. YoY CPI also seems to be approaching a favourable level around 2% though this may not be realized if negative MoM CPI estimates such as Tuesday’s are realized.

MoM US Core CPI has not been negative since early 2010 which says a lot about an improving US economy in terms of prices at least. We also see strong YoY inflation figures which are approaching a favourable 2% target. Both economies look to be improving with long-term inflation figures roughly at their standard targets.