The Week That Was
A whipsaw week for EURUSD traders, with continued concerns regarding a Greek debt deal we have witnessed Yo Yo price action in the single currency predominately driven by back and fourth public claims and counter claims by various parties to the dealings, however, yesterday saw German Chancellor issue strong support for Greece which has promoted a push higher in the Euro, but players have been quick to lighten up ahead of the weekend as most are reluctant to take to much risk home over the weekend concerned by the potential for gruesome weekend gaps.
- USD data continues to disappoint this afternoons durable goods data was no exception, most feel that the current round of weakness in US economic numbers will give the FOMC the cover they need to to stand pat on a move ahead of Septemeber. Focus moves to next weeks raft of data and USD bulls will be looking for a rebound in economic sentiment to reposition on the long side.
- EUR Monetary and political matters continue to dominate the EUR trade, the main focus as we close out the week is the looming Greek debt deadline although it appears another fudged deal will be hammered out last minute to delay any real resolution. It is likely that we could see a further relief bounce on such news before ECB policy once again takes centre stage
- JPY Ranges rule the roost int he JPY complex, most participants are reluctant to take any meaningful risk on board ahead of next weeks crucial BOJ. Most market players seem to sense that we are likely to get any significant further easing measures from next weeks meeting and CFTC data of late has reflected the lack of appetite to short JPY at current levels.
- GBP continues to grind out new gains clearing 150 and 1.51 this week squeezing late shorts out of poorly placed positions. Yesterdays BOE minutes were taken hawkishly and propelled cable through some key levels. The key concern now is regarding short term volatility as we head into the major political headline risk of the UK General Election at the beginning of May, it is likely we will witness some position adjustment as we head into the polling period.
- AUD RBA minutes were AUD supportive as the Bank held off a rate cut, however the reluctance move in April has many market players pricing in a very high probability of a cut in May. CPI dat also came in, in line as such the AUD has remained bid this week but many are cautious regarding any meaningful gains as concerns regarding China growth data continue to cloud the horizon for the AUD.
- CAD Data has been supportive for the CAD in recent weeks coupled with a stabilisation in Oil prices these two factors have led the BOC to sound less doveish in recent communications.
EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
USDCAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
AUDUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish