Trend Line Analysis : 24/07/2015

Introduction to Trend Line Analysis
Welcome to our newest feature; Trend Line Analysis. Our professional market technician showcases intraday / swing trade setups on a broad spectrum of FX currency pairs. The most effective way to use the setup are:
▪ If indicated price zone holds; consider partial profit taking between 20-40 pips before aiming for the maximum listed target.
▪ If the price zone fails to hold; we likely to see price moving against us. Fail means; the candle closing higher or lower to indicated price zone.

 

The whole idea of Trend Line Analysis is to capture the Price Action over the naked charts and find the most optimum zones for buy or sell. The trend line analysis done on the candle stick charts simply light the path for the price to travel.

USDJPY

We are bullish on the pair but looking for dips to get into longs. 123.25-30 comes in as a decent looking retrace to get in longs for a possible run higher towards 125.1X with potential move making it to early 126.

With Yen interest rate at all-time low while US is poise to hike rates; we are expecting significant move to the higher side on a bigger picture. Technically speaking there is a pattern on the pair that suggests we can see a likely bounce on the pair coming, as we may have been trading higher to the neck break of the Inverse Head & Shoulder it is depicting. The target shows initial move to 125.1X with further potential grind higher towards early 126.XX

Hence; 123.2X retest and a halt suggests going long on the pair for an initial move towards late 125.1X and extended to early 126.XX

USDJPY 8 hrs - T3 test & hold to enter longs
USDJPY 8 hrs – T3 test & hold to enter longs

GBPCAD

We have 2 scenario on the pair one bullish and other been bearish. Overall trend we believe is bullish on the pair; but where we are at the present we can possibly see another swing low before better buys can emerge.

The fundamental picture on the pair simply put; is the on going differential of interest rates between BOE which is sounding hawkish with intend to hike rates while BOC is on the dovish stance.

Coming back to our point of view and starting with what I may prefer will be the 4 hr chart layout which suggests we can see some more dips before prime buys can be sought out. With this in mind; we like to see a test of 2.0305-10 and see if the price holds to it for entering shorts with initial run towards 2.0165-75 with potential break under 2.0160 to show prime spot towards mid 2.00XX. This later level comes in as a better zone to enter longs for new yearly highs.

GBPCAD 4 hr - This scenario prefers short indicating there is more on the drop before the surge back higher
GBPCAD 4 hr – This scenario prefers short indicating there is more on the drop before the surge back higher
GBPCAD 8 hrs - This scenario calls in for long side around the lows printed yesterday
GBPCAD 8 hrs – This scenario calls in for long side around the lows printed yesterday

Alternatively; can use this 8 hrs chart layout where a test and a halt to around yesterday’s low indicating the support is firm and to long off it for an initial target of 2.0300-10 with a break higher to yield new yearly lows.

Both the layout holds weight; but perhaps GBPUSD may make a run lower which just might be enough reason to try out mid 2.00XX to start looking for the long side.

EURJPY

WE are looking for a move lower around to 135.2X to enter longs for an initial move to 136.6X with potential run higher to around 138.00 handle.

With pressure somewhat lifted off EURO on the Grexit issue; the pair is looking to make some headwinds atleast on the crosses. EURO crosses are enjoying a rally and with EURJPY recently managed to close higher to the bear channel it’s been trading within; we look for the continuation on the current move.

With this in mind; we ideally would like to see a test lower to 135.20-30 to get a re-test to the breakout point and enter longs for the intended target.

Longs from 135.20-30 can give a risk to reward ratio considering our initial run ideally should show a print of 136.6X with prime target been the test to the T4 trend line.

EURJPY 4 hrs - Looking for lower 135 to enter longs for a move close to 138
EURJPY 4 hrs – Looking for lower 135 to enter longs for a move close to 138

GBPUSD

We are looking to enter longs to 5380 if comes into play for an initial move to 544X; with a potential run higher to 555X. Overall this bounce can make it’s way to 5700 handle.

Overall the pair enjoyed immense strength on the cross play thanks to BOE hawkish statements and hints to increasing the interest rates. This current weakness can be attributed to the Over Bought levels and a to find better buys on dip for a possible move higher up.
With that in mind; we would not mind entering longs off 5380-83 if comes into play today for the risk to reward is decent from that level. 5443-45 comes in as an upcoming support and could very well hold out for the day. If so; we will wait upcoming week to try the intended longs off the desired level.

Yet the main support on the pair resides another 120 pips lower or to 535X in coming week. We are not looking at that happening unless until we get a daily close under to 5375-80.

To reiterate; 5380 zone if comes into play carries our preference to enter longs for an initial decent run to 555X with potential run higher to 5700 handle. 5445-50 re break then would be require and then to start providing support for the expected march higher.

GBPUSD 8 hrs - In a Nutshell
GBPUSD 8 hrs – In a Nutshell
GBPUSD 8 hrs - 5380 important support going forward
GBPUSD 8 hrs – 5380 important support going forward

XAU/USD

Our yesterday layout on the pair is still valid.
Please review yesterday’s post.

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