Week Ahead: Trading Outlook

Key Events This Week: June 8th – 13th

USD: Adv Retail Sales – Thur, U. Of Michigan Confidence – Friday
AUD: Employment Change, Unemployment Rate – Thur
NZD: RBNZ Rate Decision – Wed

Overview

  • USD Better late than never. After some marginal data beats recently inspired some to position for USD length heading into the NFP release, many were still sidelines going into the figure. An impressive beat of 280 vs 226 exp saw USD soar higher on Friday but the caveat of a miss on the Unemployment rate created a mixed trading outlook. Heightened expectations of a a potentially sooner-rather-than later Fed lift-off day will no doubt see speculators rushing into USD longs but suspect that longer term money is still sidelines here, or partially engaged to the upside.

 

  • EUR Began last week with a much firmer tone as EuroZone CPI figures turned positive for the first time in 6 months and German Unemployment saw a further decline. The ongoing Greek saga saw choppy flows but EUR generally remained well bid. The NFP result saw gains reversed however but with price stalling at a retest of of the important 1.10 area, we will need to see more volume in this move to drive EUR lower into a clear resumption of the longer-term downtrend. Unwinding of Bund & DAX could see EUR higher.

 

  • GBP Again we saw Sterling strike a positive note last week, despite the recent sell off, the UK currency was buoyed by better construction PMIs. However, the rise looked fairly corrective and was quickly submerged by the flow of USD buying. GBP is also sitting on pivotal levels and the sense is that again, the path is not clear,

 

  • JPY Having begun last week with weakness such that USDJPY hit the important psychological 125 level we then saw a little retreat as obvious defence of that level stepped in. However, the NFP result drove price straight through on Friday. COT positioning has remained long into this level and with the Nikkei surging higher and JGB demand low, this move looks set to continue. Short-term retest of the 125 breakout should be expected.

 

  • AUD Chinese manufacturing PMIs held the line to begin last week with the RBA keeping rates unchanged to spur some AUD demand, or at least profit taking on shorts into the decision. Australian GDP came in slightly below forecast and saw AUD concede gains on the week. NFPs saw AUD all the way back down to the yearly low.

 

  • CAD Oil maintained a range last week and so followed CAD with USDCAD currently stalled at a retest of the range formed at March highs. Canadian employment came in above forecast on Friday but was quickly upstaged by the impressive NFP number. A retreat from the retest of the March high’s range in USDCAD still looks possible here.

 

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