Week Ahead: Trading Outlook

Key Events This Week: Jul 13th – 17th

USD: Retail Sales – Tuesday, Yellen(Semi-Annual Testimony to House Financial Panel – Wednesday, Yellen (Semi-Annual Testimony to Senate Banking Panel) – Thursday, CPI & U. of Michigan Confidence – Friday
EUR: EZ ZEW Survey – Tuesday, ECB Rate decision – Thursday
GBP: CPI – Tuesday
CAD: BOC Rate decision & Monetary policy report – Wednesday, CPI -Friday
NZD: CPI – Wednesday

Overview

  • USD Likely to draw support from the uncertainty surrounding Greece in a repeat of last week’s price action. Fed chair Yellen makes a series of appearances this week and traders will be closely monitoring her comments on the US economic outlook alongside key data releases.
  • EUR The escalating crisis with Greece continues to throw uncertainty over the trading outlook for the Euro as European leaders struggle to eek out a last minute deal with Greece.  A midnight deadline for a settlement on Greece’s debt will be the key focus as Asia opens, however previous deadlines have proven soft and so volatility is to be expected this week as events unfold with EuroZone ZEW on Tuesday and the ECB rate decision on Thursday to add further risk, though the latter not expected to herald any change.
  • GBP Traders will be watching the CPI release on Tuesday following last month’s data showing the UK had moved out of deflation. A solid number should spur the UK currency to continue to trade higher again following last week’s weakness.
  • JPY The situation with Greece should see strong JPY safe-haven demand as Japanese investors look to play safe. No domestic data will leave the focus on the Greek situation and comments from the US Fed chair.
  • AUD A host of Chinese data this week will drive AUD action along with the Greek situation. No domestic data will leave the focus on these two key risk elements with NZD CPI likely to affect flows too based on AUD/NZD spread.
  • CAD An important week for the Canadian currency with the BoC set to deliver it’s rate decision on Wednesday alongside it’s Monetary policy report with CPI data to follow on Friday.

 

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