Week Ahead: Trading Outlook

Key Events This Week: July 20th – 24th

USD: Existing Home Sales – Wednesday, New Home Sales – Friday
GBP: BoE Minutes – Wednesday, Retail Sales – Thursday
AUD: RBA July Meeting Minutes – Tuesday, CPI – Wednesday, Trade Balance – Thursday
CAD: Retail Sales – Thursday
NZD: RBNZ Official Cash Rate – Wednesday

Overview

  • USD – Performed strongly across the majors last week with the exception of GBPUSD. Fed Chair Yellen reiterated in live comments this week that the Fed remains on track to raise rates this year citing the need to move sooner rather than later, to facilitate a more gradual rate increase path. A big beat on Housing starts and building permits along with CPI in-line spurred Dollar strength on Friday.
  • EUR – The agreement in Greece saw the Euro trade lower last week on the combination of higher European equities and lower yields with EURUSD now eyeing the 1.0818 May low as next support.
  • GBP – A stronger week for the UK currency last week despite a flat CPI reading. Bulls were spurred by comments from Bank Of England Governor Mark Carney commenting that a potential interest rate increase will be brought into focus around the turn of the year as lower oil prices are expected to feed through and increase inflation. BoE minutes will be keenly observed this week for any further hints on a rate rise.
  • JPY – No further stimulus was announced from the Bank Of Japan this week though the Central Bank did lower it’s growth forecast for the Japanese economy whilst still citing an anticipation for inflation to reach the Bank’s 2% target by September next year.
  • AUD – Last week was a tough week for the Australian currency as commodity prices continued lower. Comments from the RBA’s Edwards regarding a necessary path lower for the Aussie weighed on price with AUDUSD printing fresh lows once again  in the wake of hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen. RBA minutes release and CPI will be key for the Aussie’s trading outlook this week.
  • CAD – The game of “will they won’t they?” finally came to a close last week as the Bank Of Canada cut rates for the second time this year citing the damage to the economy suffered from the sharp decline in oil prices. USDCAD traded back to 2009 highs of 1.30

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