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Institutional Insights: Barcalys FX Thoughts For The Week Ahead

Inflation’s bark is worse than its bite - Strong global growth, elevated commodity prices, and slowly tightening DM central banks should continue supporting EM. We favor EM FX over local bonds/rates. Global inflation remains well-behaved and a move to “normality” is far away. Inflation fundamentals suggest a slow grind higher, rather than an inflexion point. The market’s long-held perception of the JPY as strictly a safe-haven currency has recently been challenged. Market positioning suggests downside risks to USDJPY...
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